Showing posts with label Sports Betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sports Betting. Show all posts

Know Your Opponent

Before you start with online betting, it's very smart to gather som info about the "opposition", i.e the bookmaker. It's a good advice to follow this little checklist before placing your money in the bookmakers account:

Reliability/Credibility.

Is it a recognised bookie ? A well known name, with a proven track record ? In other words: Is your money safe ? Check for words on the street, and among other punters. Is the bookie unreliable, or very late with his payouts, etc, then have a look elsewhere. Listen to the grapevine, and pay attention to what others have to say about the bookie.

Methods of payment.

The bookie should have several methods of payouts, not only by bank check, but also by credit cards. I find it most convenient using a credit card in all my transactions with bookies. It may be wise to open a new VISA account, separated from your salary-account.

Rules.

It's a must to know the rules in every game you play, and it's the same story here. Read the rules, and send an email and ask the bookie if you are unsure about something. Avoid bookies who do not accept singles. If the bookie only accepts trebles or doubles, find another. A few years ago, SSP only accepted 4 match parleys. Effectively, this is like telling the punter: " you can have a bet with us, but we will win in 99 of 100 bets". Luckily, competition in the bookmaking market has grown tougher, and as a result, most bookies these days offer singles on every game and in every sport.

Taxes.

Private bookmakers pay taxes to the country they operate in. In some countries, the bookie pay the punter's tax aswell as it's own taxes. When betting with online bookmakers, you should not accept taxes on your winnings. In England, the law states that punters must pay a tax of 9% on their winnings. Do not accept to pay taxes on your winnings, unless you are situated in Britain and with local bookmakers. (abide the law !!!). Online bookmakers do not charge taxes on a punters winnings.

Prices. 

What kind of odds is your bookie offering ? How is the odds compared to what others offer on the same event ? Does the bookie change the odds a lot, and is the bookie presenting his prices for events early in the week ? Even though the bookies do alter their odds (often done on popular events, such as big soccergames, formula1, Championships, etc), you should get the odds which was offered at the time you placed your bet. If the bookie alter the odds on your event after you've placed your bet, and your odds changes as a result of this, go find another bookie. The bookie's behaviour is then nothing but unacceptable and he's not worthy an honest customer like yourself. Normally this is not a problem, but have been known to occur from time to time.

Maximum winnings.

Check if your bookie has got a very low maximum winnings.  For the average punter, this is not important, but for the tough guys, who bet 10 grand rather than a tenner now and then, this can be of some importance.
Minimum deposits
Hopefully you will only have to deposit your hard-earned cash once, but it can be worth having a look at the bookies' rules regarding minimum deposits. Some bookies demand a fortune in deposits. Stay away from these vultures !

Events offered.

The worst thing a bookie can do, is not offering lousy prices. Infact, the worst thing is not offering you the opportunity to bet on an event. Some bookies only offer odds on the top leagues, and never bother about english 2. or 3. division, or Italian Serie B. Some don't even bother with Norwegian 1.division during the summer break in European leagues. It's a major "pre" if your bookie offer as many events as possible, not only soccer, but all kinds of sports. The clever bookie knows, ofcourse, that when many events are offered, the chances are that punters will bet on more events than they originally had in mind, thus increasing the bookies chance of profit. Private bookies do generally offer most events, while the national bookmakers in Norway, Sweden and Denmark only pick a handful of all matches available, and often exclude big favourites in their event lists. Centrebet and Interwetten are bookies who cover a large number of events every week. Do not accept bookies who only cover a few sports, and bookies who do not offer you the chance to bet on lower divisions, or who often exclude big favourites from their event list.

Risk free bets

"There is no such thing as a free lunch" is a common known "rule" in life, but there sure are some meals that are cheaper than others !

Check these links frequently to find risk free bets:

Bookmakers do not always present correct odds. Sometimes the odds presented on a given event can vary very much with different bookmakers. Some bookmakers fancy the home team, others fancy the away team, and some even the draw. This is something punters can take advantage of. By adding the inverse of the odds offered on H, D and A, we are able to calculate the spread tax of the actual event.

Example:

AS Roma Leeds United 1.90 (Alpenland) 3.60 (Darwin) 5.75 (Darwin)


The best odds offered on 1/X/2 are Alpenland's 1.90, Darwin's 3.60 and Darwin's 5.75. When Alpenland offer 1.90 for the home win, it means that a bet of 1$ gives a 1.90$ return.

As a result, a bet of 0.53$ gives a 1$ return ( 1 / 1.90 = 0.53).
 For the draw, a bet of 0.28$ gives a 1$ return (1 / 3.60 = 0.28)
 For the away win, a bet of 0.17 $ gives a 1$ return (1 / 5.75 = 0.17)

If we add all these bets (0.53 + 0.28 + 0.17) we get 0.98.
 Thus, you need to bet 0.98$ in order to get a 1$ for sure.

If we take the inverse of 0.98 (1 / 0.98 =1.02) you'll see that for every 1 $ you bet, you will get 1.02 $ back !!

In other words, a totally risk-free bet !!!

Note: The calulation is made without including any taxes or other expenses (like the fees for transferring money). In order to make use of this kind of betting, you need accounts with several bookmakers, and a quite a considerable funds available because even though it's a sure bet, you will lose your stake at two of the bookies, and win at the third. Thus you may go broke in some of your accounts, and if you need to deposit money frequently, the transfer fees will outweigh the small advantage you gain on this type of betting. Not all bookmakers accept singles either.

Betting Tips

With sportsbetting as with everything else in life, it's important to set yourself a goal. If you don't have a goal with your betting, it may get out of hand. You may start betting every day, you may start betting harder to make up for earlier losses, you suddenly place impulsive bets, and the whole thing can become rather unpleasant. Therefore, take a few moments thinking over the following:

Risk profile
Who am I to tell you how you're going to bet, and where to place your bets ? You're right, I can only suggest, not command. There are no correct answers to how you should bet to make money. It all depends (among other things) on your risk profile. Therefore, an answer can only be given when you know your willingness to take risks. A punter who wants to win big money fast, often has a risky way of betting (betting on outsiders, often with high stakes). The opposite is the punter who's content with making a 10% profit on his bets. He has a rather low risk profile, and places his bets on a big favourite at low prices and very often with low stakes aswell.

Long term/short term
This is one of the most important things to decide. Do you bet on a short term basis, or long term ? If you bet long term, you're probably willing to bet on outsiders, with a relativly low matemathical chance of winning. In that way, you don't have to win each time, but when you do win, you win a lot because the odds on outsiders are high.
The question is: Have you got the patience to wait for the outsider. Will you loose patience, and start changing your strategy ?
The short-term punter will most likely bet on big favourites at small prices, and often with high stakes. He will feel he's winning often , but when he wins, the payback is so small, that one loss, and it's all down to scratch again. This is due to the bookie's fear of favourites. The relative value on favourites is often very slim, due to the fact that the bookie fear the favourites big chance of winning (thus a large payout for the bookie, as most punters bet on big favourites). In other words, you get less value out of each bet when you bet on big favourites, because they don't win as often as the prices offered reflect.

"Modus operandi"
Some people fancy a bet just to have some excitement watching a televised footballmatch or sport event. And that's OK. They don't care too much whether they win or loose. It's just for the sake of entertainment. And these people don't bet everyday, they've got a relaxed relation to sports betting. The opposite is punters who intend to win money on their betting, big money. Often these punters need to play often, and they bet on low-priced games, which the bookie is very aware of, and therefore has slashed the odds notably. Therefore, these punters don't get the long-term value which high-odds often provide.
But what happens when the "entertainment-punter" suddenly starts winning ?
Yes, correct, he suddenly starts increasing his stakes, because he feels he has been lucky or clever, he's betting more often than before, and then suddenly his money has gone. This is a result of human behaviour. It seems as if we, for some strange reason, want to loose the money we've won. When we win, we don't stop, and say: "Allright, I'm satisfied". No, we stretch the limits further, and suddenly we start loosing. And when we've crossed the limits, we really don't notice it, because now we're trying to get back what we've "lost". And then everything start going downhill. If you started with 100 $, then winning 500 $, you've got a nice profit.
Instead of taking the profit, you stretch the limits further, and suddenly you're down to 300 $. Still you've got a 200 % payoff, but you'll feel that 300 on the way down is much less than 300 on the way up, and therefore you'll continue betting without taking the 200 $ profit. Chances are that your profit has disappeared before you even realise what's happening...
This is somewhat self destructive, but it can be dealt with if you've got a minimum of self dicipline.

Dicipline
When you win, don't feel unbeatable, and start increasing your stakes straight away. Continue where you started, and remember that even though it's easy to win, it's even easier to loose what you've just gained. Ofcourse you should take your chances when you're in a winning streak, but keep in mind it's very easy to let it all get out of hand. When you're loosing, don't get tempted into irrational actions (dramaticly increasing the stakes, changing your strategy, bet on more games, etc). If your strategy has worked before, it will work again, it's all about dicipline and patience. Sometimes you will hit a bad run, and this is the time to show dicipline. Maybe take a few weeks break from betting, do something else and come back later.

Time
Have you got the time to gather info about the participants in the events, or do you just put in a bet every know and then just for the sake of excitement ? Analyse what kind of time you're willing to use on this hobby, and act thereafter.

Money
How much money have I got at my disposal ? How much can I afford to loose ? Never bet with borrowed money. Do not bet whith money who's intended used for housekeeping or other more important things than sports betting. Always keep in mind that you can loose all your money. Set yourself a target, and take the profit when you've reached the target, then start all over again. Example: If you start with 100 $, set a target of 500$. If you reach 500$, order a payout of 400$, and continue with your initial 100$. In this way, you'll see the fruits of your work, real cash, not only virtual money on the bookie's server.

Naturally interrested
Are you really interrested in sports, or do you bet just for the sake of the possible profit? If you enjoy sports, it's much easier to keep updated on what's going on, thus maybe having an extra edge on the bookie. If you feel that the whole thing is getting boring and no fun anymore, then it's time to call it a day. Do not bet just for the sake of a bet. When the motivation is gone, there's a big chance that you will lose patience and interest, and finally your money.

A real way to make money sports betting

A real way to make money sports betting



There are people in the UK teaching this very strategy for thousand of pounds. It works and I was doing it a year ago. This strategy requires knowledge of arbing and betfair trading.

 How this strategy works is you back at the sportsbook and then lay at betfair creating a wash (ie no profit or loss). The secret is you become an affiliate of the sportsbook, and then make 25% of the loss taken on the back bet.

 So essentially you are making a risk free arb type bet. If the back bet loses you earn 25% of that losing back bet. If the back bet wins you lose the corresponding lay bet at betfair creating no profit or loss.

 1. Open a betfair account and a moneybookers account.

 2. Become an affiliate / partner of a sportsbook. Affiliates earn 20-30% of all losing bets that sign up under them. You may need to create a website to put banners and articles onto. When approving an affiliate account the affiliate manager checks the applicant and will want to see a real betting type website.

 3. Sign up for the sportsbook under your own affiliate account.

 4. You do a dutch type bet, backing at the sportsbook and laying at betfair. It is easiest to do this with UK horse racing just before the race as the lines are moving everywhere. With soccer or other sports you can still do it but the odds are never exactly the same each side.

 5. Make sure the odds are around 3/1 to 5/1 and as close as possible. Example 3.00 at the sportsbook and 3.05 at betfair.

 5. Over time you will lose most back bets at the sportsbook, while gaining a bigger account at betfair. Use moneybookers as a conduit to move the betfair money to your sportsbook account. Betfair to moneybookers, moneybookers to sportsbook. It can be done in minutes.

 Example - 

 Back $500 on horse 12 at odds of $4.20. 
 Lay $156.25 ($500 liability) on horse 12 at odds of $4.20.

 If horse 12 wins or loses, there is no profit or loss. But as a sportsbook affiliate you earn 25% if it loses, which is $125 profit.

 Your ability to do these bets is only constrained by the size of the betting pools in betfair. It is difficult to lay more than $500 on any horse just before a race. With soccer and other games the betting pool is huge but the betfair odds are always longer than the sportbook price, creating a small loss every bet. This small loss is easily made up from the affiliate commission.

 Negative carry over - This is important but difficult to explain. Many sportsbooks have what is called negative carry over. For example if you place a $200 back bet at 4.00 and it wins, your affiliate account will show a -$600 loss. This loss must be made up BEFORE they pay any 25% commissions. Some sportsbook carry over negative account balances to the next month. Do not bother with these sportsbooks. Only become an affiliate of those who do not have negative carry over. No negative carry over means that even if a back bet did win, this amount get cleared on the 1st of the month and you are free to earn your 25% commission again.

 So to wrap up, you want to place one bet a month at 10-12 sportsbooks. If the back bet wins there is no profit. If the back bet loses you earn 25%. Betting on horses at 3/1 to 5/1 they generally lose at a rate of 8 out of 10 times or better. You can earn about $2000k a month quite easily.

 Some people may say well how is it possible to sign up to a sportsbook under your own affiliate account? Well they tend to not care what small stake losing betters do. There did not seem to be any account cross checking back in 2008 when I did it.

Best free website for betting tips picks

Best free website for betting tips picks


- search on google brought me this.. http://www.007soccerpicks.com/

- www.Betcube365.com is a sports betting community where tipsters around the world share betting tips and betting information. Also is a place where you can prove your betting ability in the betting world. Right now there are 322 Betting tips posted by our community tipsters.

- WinDrawWin is a good one too

- Some good website for soccer picks.
 1.Betting tips
 2.Betrush.com
 3.Emilija-Miha.bloger.hr
 4.TipsterWin.com
 5.maja-tips.com

- I follow www.mistertipster.eu the last year

- Not free but take a look at www.bettingresource.com. By far the best handicapping site in the industry. Let me know if anyone find any site that is even half as successful as bettingresource in the past 5 to 7 years.

- update later...